EARLY WARNING SIGNALS
OBJECTIVE
The network aims to develop methods and approaches to identify early signals of change that will herald the advent of sudden changes or critical transitions.
ABSTRACT
Complex systems are characterized by non-linear change dynamics and in many cases by sharp transitions with thresholds that can be known or not (eutrophic lakes, whitening of corals, overgrazing of grasslands, changes in precipitation patterns associated to deforestation, collapse of fisheries, among many others).
The abrupt transitions in natural or socio-ecological systems can determine the loss of ecosystem services crucial to human well-being, in turn generating adverse impact on the social and economic spheres. The network aims to explore and establish new approaches, both in time and space, to identify signals in the systems dynamics in order to anticipate the arrival of abrupt changes. In particular cases, the identification of early signals can also promote development or measures, operations or strategies that increase the system’s resilience and ultimately prevent the occurrence of unwanted transitions.
MEMBERS
Marten Scheffer (Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University, Netherlands)
Jordi Bascompte (Integrative Ecology Group at Doñana Biological Station,, CSIC, Spain)
Steve Carpenter (Center for Limnology, Wisconsin University, USA)
Pablo Marquet (Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas, Pontificia Universidad Católica, Chile)
RECENT CONTRIBUTIONS
Scheffer, M. 2009. Critical transitions in nature and society. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
Scheffer, M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W.A.,, Brovkin, V., Carpenter, S.R., Dakos, V.,
Held, H., van Nes, E.H., Rietkerk, M. & Sugihara, G. 2009. Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature 461/3: 53-59.
CONTACT US
Marten Scheffer